Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

FC Juárez vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 2.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$82.49

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 47.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,188

Combined PnL+$82.7

Over2 traders

Total Value$7.77

Total Shares15

Combined PnL-$0.21

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
us391CTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$77.54	51% 1674-1629 (3303)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$94	$98	+$4	56% 7074-5669 (12743)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$44.34	$45.26	+$0.92	58% 5834-4284 (10118)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 52¢	$4.8	$4.71	-$0.09	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.43	$4.62	+$0.19	45% 676-832 (1508)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.22	$4.27	+$0.04	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 53¢	$3.18	$3.06	-$0.12	52% 4099-3733 (7832)

us391CTR

Under

Invested

$1,822.2

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$77.54

Record

51%

1674-1629 (3303)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$94

Value

$98

PnL

+$4

Record

56%

7074-5669 (12743)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.34

Value

$45.26

PnL

+$0.92

Record

58%

5834-4284 (10118)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.71

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.43

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$0.19

Record

45%

676-832 (1508)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.22

Value

$4.27

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.06

PnL

-$0.12

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.