Will Atlante FC win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 86¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$1.3K
$8.86
85.8¢ → 86¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 85.7¢ | $1.0K | $824.41 | +$4.07 | 58% 42202-30652 (72854) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 86¢ | $303.15 | $303.15 | +$0 | 50% 33606-33156 (66762) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 85.9¢ | $156.03 | $156.3 | +$1.18 | 53% 16036-14210 (30246) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $48.36 | $51.97 | +$3.61 | 73% 6739-2446 (9185) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,030.94
Value
$824.41
PnL
+$4.07
Record
58%
42202-30652 (72854)
Invested
$303.15
Value
$303.15
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
33606-33156 (66762)
Invested
$156.03
Value
$156.3
PnL
+$1.18
Record
53%
16036-14210 (30246)
Invested
$48.36
Value
$51.97
PnL
+$3.61
Record
73%
6739-2446 (9185)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.