Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Club León FC end in a draw?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $157 held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$157.19
-$57.89
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345CTR | Yesavg 17.6¢ | $566.46 | $88.86 | -$64.59 | 57% 1888-1414 (3302) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 81.1¢ | $27.82 | $33.26 | +$5.44 | 54% 6542-5492 (12034) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $30.8 | $30.21 | +$1.4 | 76% 4201-1319 (5520) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.85 | -$0.15 | 98% 13561-231 (13792) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.