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nigiri99ARB<$100NoYesNoYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Atlas FC vs. CF Pachuca end in a draw?
Resolved No. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$622
Combined PnL
-$25.79
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares97
Combined PnL-$27.14
No1 trader
Total Value$5
Total Shares5
Combined PnL+$1.35
Yes — 75%No — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
nigiri99ARB<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $637.99 | $617 | -$12.02 | 46% 8770-10464 (19234) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75¢ | $462.52 | $617 | +$157.34 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.7¢ | $175.48 | — | -$169.35 | |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $24.4 | — | -$24.4 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $3.65 | $5 | +$1.35 | 52% 9022-8174 (17196) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $2.74 | — | -$2.74 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | — | — | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
nigiri99ARB<$100Invested
$637.99
Value
$617
PnL
-$12.02
Record
46%
8770-10464 (19234)
Both legs:
No$462.5275¢+$157.34
Yes$175.4828.7¢-$169.35
LI
LimousinCTR<$100Invested
$24.4
Value
—
PnL
-$24.4
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
AM
ameisgoat11<$100Invested
$3.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.35
Record
52%
9022-8174 (17196)
LI
LightParadoxCTR<$100Invested
$2.74
Value
—
PnL
-$2.74
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x6ede1965...8cf1a4
Slug
mex-atl-pac-2026-11-07-draw