Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (65%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Atlético San Luis vs. Atlas FC: O/U 3.5
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (14%) · Over at 36¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 14%
$3.6K
-$13.29
Research grade
NeutralOver at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc15b7d997a404e55ba96d1cdd53fb160db153b86CTR | Overavg 35.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$8.76 | — |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 64.8¢ | $813.2 | $804.55 | -$5.45 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 64.5¢ | $374.51 | $374.46 | -$0.05 | 56% 7074-5669 (12743) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Underavg 64¢ | $116.51 | $117.18 | +$0.66 | 54% 4865-4090 (8955) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $37.76 | $38.06 | +$0.3 | 58% 28450-21016 (49466) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $4.46 | $4.39 | +$0.03 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $5 | $3.23 | -$0.03 | 47% 2290-2563 (4853) |
Invested
$2,290
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$8.76
Record
—
VeryLucky888Invested
$813.2
Value
$804.55
PnL
-$5.45
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
0xheavy888Invested
$374.51
Value
$374.46
PnL
-$0.05
Record
56%
7074-5669 (12743)
Invested
$116.51
Value
$117.18
PnL
+$0.66
Record
54%
4865-4090 (8955)
Invested
$37.76
Value
$38.06
PnL
+$0.3
Record
58%
28450-21016 (49466)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.46
Value
$4.39
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
Invested
$5
Value
$3.23
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
2290-2563 (4853)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.