Atlético San Luis vs. Atlas FC: O/U 2.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 56¢ · $22K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 17%
$22.5K
$42.46
Research grade
NeutralOver at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH theowalcott | Overavg 56¢ | $12.2K | $12.3K | +$108.61 | 50% 109-108 (217) |
 us391CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $8.0K | $7.9K | -$90.59 | 51% 1671-1621 (3292) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Underavg 43.9¢ | $991.21 | $1.0K | +$14.23 | 45% 669-828 (1497) |
BE berlinskiesCTR | Underavg 44.1¢ | $770 | $759.71 | -$10.29 | 58% 5822-4279 (10101) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 43.8¢ | $437.5 | $445 | +$7.5 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $86 | $99 | +$13 | 54% 4855-4081 (8936) |
Invested
$12,164.1
Value
$12.3K
PnL
+$108.61
Record
50%
109-108 (217)
us391CTRInvested
$7,972.29
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$90.59
Record
51%
1671-1621 (3292)
Invested
$991.21
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$14.23
Record
45%
669-828 (1497)
Invested
$770
Value
$759.71
PnL
-$10.29
Record
58%
5822-4279 (10101)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$437.5
Value
$445
PnL
+$7.5
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
Invested
$86
Value
$99
PnL
+$13
Record
54%
4855-4081 (8936)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.