Will Atlas FC win on 2026-10-30?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 65¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$3.3K
-$16.29
64.7¢ → 64.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 sapupu | Noavg 65¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$11.54 | 55% 62-50 (112) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Yesavg 36.5¢ | $781.8 | $772.51 | -$9.29 | 45% 676-832 (1508) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Yesavg 35.6¢ | $1.2K | $640.3 | +$7.52 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35.6¢ | $404.75 | $403.97 | +$5.69 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64¢ | $234.5 | $236.33 | +$1.83 | |
CA Cannae | Noavg 63¢ | $304.1 | $308.34 | +$4.24 | 53% 15892-14085 (29977) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $41.04 | $41.04 | +$0 | 58% 28450-21016 (49466) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 63.1¢ | $14.08 | $14.27 | +$0.3 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
sapupuInvested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$11.54
Record
55%
62-50 (112)
Invested
$781.8
Value
$772.51
PnL
-$9.29
Record
45%
676-832 (1508)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$1,172.78
Value
$640.3
PnL
+$7.52
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
Both legs:
Invested
$304.1
Value
$308.34
PnL
+$4.24
Record
53%
15892-14085 (29977)
Invested
$41.04
Value
$41.04
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28450-21016 (49466)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$14.08
Value
$14.27
PnL
+$0.3
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.