Will Atlético San Luis win on 2026-10-30?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 59¢ · $51K held · ended Oct 31

Yes42¢No58¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$50.9K

Combined PnL

-$986.97

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 58.5¢

-2% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$21.6K

Total Shares58,063

Combined PnL$-1.7K

No12 traders

Total Value$29.2K

Total Shares46,808

Combined PnL+$743.84

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OH OhWhenTheRedsCTR	Yesavg 40.2¢	$22.7K	$21.0K	$-1.8K	47% 56-64 (120)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 59.8¢	$6.6K	$6.5K	-$119.69	59% 45474-31848 (77322)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 59¢	$4.3K	$4.6K	+$291.56	49% 12528-12922 (25450)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 60¢	$4.2K	$4.4K	+$210	47% 2476-2784 (5260)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 61.8¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$72.64	45% 682-837 (1519)
HI hi774c	Noavg 59.5¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$204.55	52% 4717-4435 (9152)
FO forecastication4	Noavg 60¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$120	49% 1151-1188 (2339)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 59.8¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$82.05	50% 24930-24652 (49582)
CA Cannae	Noavg 59.5¢	$910.51	$964.09	+$53.59	53% 15910-14091 (30001)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 37¢	$520.77	$582.53	+$61.75	54% 56399-48569 (104968)
oieshfn345	Noavg 58.9¢	$317.57	$315.29	-$2.36	57% 1682-1265 (2947)
0xheavy888	Noavg 60¢	$264.14	$254.42	-$9.71	56% 7079-5671 (12750)
HRTradingARB<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$93.03	$101.89	-$2.32	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37¢	$55.13	$67.05	+$0.75
└ No leg	Noavg 59.8¢	$37.9	$34.84	-$3.06
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 60¢	$53.4	$56.07	+$2.67	58% 28489-21037 (49526)
SL slimjoe<$100	Noavg 60¢	$52.8	$55.44	+$2.64	51% 6493-6158 (12651)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$22.94	$22.41	-$0.52	52% 13748-12549 (26297)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$1.84	$1.82	-$0.02	67% 23297-11699 (34996)

OhWhenTheRedsCTR

Yes

Invested

$22,747.67

Value

$21.0K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

47%

56-64 (120)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$6,644.41

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$119.69

Record

59%

45474-31848 (77322)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$4,300.51

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$291.56

Record

49%

12528-12922 (25450)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$4,200

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$210

Record

47%

2476-2784 (5260)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$3,678.79

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$72.64

Record

45%

682-837 (1519)

hi774c

Invested

$3,493.06

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$204.55

Record

52%

4717-4435 (9152)

forecastication4

Invested

$2,400

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$120

Record

49%

1151-1188 (2339)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,134.23

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$82.05

Record

50%

24930-24652 (49582)

Cannae

Invested

$910.51

Value

$964.09

PnL

+$53.59

Record

53%

15910-14091 (30001)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$520.77

Value

$582.53

PnL

+$61.75

Record

54%

56399-48569 (104968)

oieshfn345

Invested

$317.57

Value

$315.29

PnL

-$2.36

Record

57%

1682-1265 (2947)

0xheavy888

Invested

$264.14

Value

$254.42

PnL

-$9.71

Record

56%

7079-5671 (12750)

HRTradingARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.03

Value

$101.89

PnL

-$2.32

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

Both legs:

Yes$55.1337¢+$0.75

No$37.959.8¢-$3.06

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$53.4

Value

$56.07

PnL

+$2.67

Record

58%

28489-21037 (49526)

slimjoe<$100

Invested

$52.8

Value

$55.44

PnL

+$2.64

Record

51%

6493-6158 (12651)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.94

Value

$22.41

PnL

-$0.52

Record

52%

13748-12549 (26297)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.84

Value

$1.82

PnL

-$0.02

Record

67%

23297-11699 (34996)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.