CF América vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 5.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$1.3K
$452.79
90.2¢ → 98.5¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 90.3¢ | $707.78 | $760.28 | +$52.5 | 59% 44933-31331 (76264) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 10¢ | $57.32 | $260.81 | +$203.49 | 54% 55932-48052 (103984) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 16¢ | $53.19 | $151.26 | +$98.07 | 49% 12313-12578 (24891) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 11¢ | $33.57 | $138.85 | +$105.28 | 58% 41030-29693 (70723) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 89¢ | $16.91 | $10.36 | -$6.56 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
Invested
$707.78
Value
$760.28
PnL
+$52.5
Record
59%
44933-31331 (76264)
RN1CTRInvested
$57.32
Value
$260.81
PnL
+$203.49
Record
54%
55932-48052 (103984)
Invested
$53.19
Value
$151.26
PnL
+$98.07
Record
49%
12313-12578 (24891)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$33.57
Value
$138.85
PnL
+$105.28
Record
58%
41030-29693 (70723)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$16.91
Value
$10.36
PnL
-$6.56
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.