CF América vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 4.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 94¢ · $695 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$694.68
-$36.73
83¢ → 94¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 84.9¢ | $497.58 | $530.51 | +$32.93 | 59% 44933-31331 (76264) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 13.7¢ | $94.56 | $65.46 | -$29.11 | 49% 12313-12578 (24891) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 78¢ | $107.59 | $64.83 | -$42.76 | 58% 28182-20778 (48960) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 73.3¢ | $28.32 | $28.77 | +$0.45 | 54% 55932-48052 (103984) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 24¢ | $3.36 | $5.11 | +$1.75 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
Invested
$497.58
Value
$530.51
PnL
+$32.93
Record
59%
44933-31331 (76264)
Invested
$94.56
Value
$65.46
PnL
-$29.11
Record
49%
12313-12578 (24891)
Invested
$107.59
Value
$64.83
PnL
-$42.76
Record
58%
28182-20778 (48960)
RN1<$100Invested
$28.32
Value
$28.77
PnL
+$0.45
Record
54%
55932-48052 (103984)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.36
Value
$5.11
PnL
+$1.75
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.