Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (60%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CF América vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 3.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 40¢ · $203 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 100%
$202.88
-$0.53
40¢ → 40¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 40¢ | $116.64 | $116.64 | +$0 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $43.94 | $43.94 | -$0 | 53% 3047-2709 (5756) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $36.4 | $36.4 | -$0.46 | 58% 28121-20725 (48846) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $5.97 | $5.89 | -$0.08 | 47% 2041-2345 (4386) |
Invested
$116.64
Value
$116.64
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
44606-31003 (75609)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$43.94
Value
$43.94
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
3047-2709 (5756)
Invested
$36.4
Value
$36.4
PnL
-$0.46
Record
58%
28121-20725 (48846)
Invested
$5.97
Value
$5.89
PnL
-$0.08
Record
47%
2041-2345 (4386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.