Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (66%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CF América vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 2.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 35¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$3.3K
$425.73
25.3¢ → 34.5¢
+37% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 28.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$256.26 | 59% 44933-31331 (76264) |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 73.1¢ | $937.12 | $929.57 | -$7.55 | 49% 12313-12578 (24891) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 14.5¢ | $292.27 | $564.42 | +$272.15 | 54% 55932-48052 (103984) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 36.9¢ | $871.21 | $225.81 | -$58.17 | 58% 41030-29693 (70723) |
 poshposh | Overavg 73.2¢ | $103.9 | $130.68 | +$26.78 | 59% 9529-6541 (16070) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 20.2¢ | $120.46 | $62.63 | -$57.83 | 50% 32969-32506 (65475) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Overavg 79¢ | $21.82 | $21.13 | -$0.69 | 57% 2083-1561 (3644) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 34.4¢ | $7.84 | $2.62 | -$5.22 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
Invested
$1,131.22
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$256.26
Record
59%
44933-31331 (76264)
Invested
$937.12
Value
$929.57
PnL
-$7.55
Record
49%
12313-12578 (24891)
RN1CTRInvested
$292.27
Value
$564.42
PnL
+$272.15
Record
54%
55932-48052 (103984)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$871.21
Value
$225.81
PnL
-$58.17
Record
58%
41030-29693 (70723)
poshposhInvested
$103.9
Value
$130.68
PnL
+$26.78
Record
59%
9529-6541 (16070)
Invested
$120.46
Value
$62.63
PnL
-$57.83
Record
50%
32969-32506 (65475)
Invested
$21.82
Value
$21.13
PnL
-$0.69
Record
57%
2083-1561 (3644)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.84
Value
$2.62
PnL
-$5.22
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.