Spread: CF América (-2.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Club Tijuana (80%) · Club Tijuana at 97¢ · $476 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Club Tijuana
5
Club Tijuana 80%
$475.73
-$56.88
89¢ → 97¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralClub Tijuana at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2 | Club Tijuanaavg 91¢ | $384.08 | $311.58 | -$72.5 | 50% 6832-6841 (13673) |
UP UpTheBlues | Club Tijuanaavg 89¢ | $104.13 | $104.13 | +$0 | 59% 44933-31331 (76264) |
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100 | Club Tijuanaavg 72.7¢ | $28.25 | $28.54 | +$0.29 | 60% 863-572 (1435) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | CF Américaavg 7¢ | $5.64 | $21.35 | +$15.71 | 59% 9529-6541 (16070) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Club Tijuanaavg 76.3¢ | $10.51 | $10.13 | -$0.38 | 50% 32969-32506 (65475) |
Invested
$384.08
Value
$311.58
PnL
-$72.5
Record
50%
6832-6841 (13673)
Invested
$104.13
Value
$104.13
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
44933-31331 (76264)
Invested
$28.25
Value
$28.54
PnL
+$0.29
Record
60%
863-572 (1435)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$5.64
Value
$21.35
PnL
+$15.71
Record
59%
9529-6541 (16070)
Invested
$10.51
Value
$10.13
PnL
-$0.38
Record
50%
32969-32506 (65475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.