Spread: CF América (-1.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Club Tijuana (57%) · Club Tijuana at 85¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Club Tijuana
7
Club Tijuana 57%
$4.4K
$379.99
75.2¢ → 85¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralClub Tijuana at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Club Tijuanaavg 77.9¢ | $3.3K | $3.6K | +$298.09 | 59% 44933-31331 (76264) |
 0xheavy888 | Club Tijuanaavg 61¢ | $487.98 | $643.98 | +$72 | 56% 6940-5557 (12497) |
SN SnakeBall | Club Tijuanaavg 80.3¢ | $158.37 | $167.66 | +$9.28 | 50% 32969-32506 (65475) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Club Tijuanaavg 61¢ | $32.43 | $33.14 | +$0.71 | 58% 41030-29693 (70723) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | CF Américaavg 36¢ | $10.26 | $10.55 | +$0.29 | 49% 12313-12578 (24891) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | CF Américaavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $1.95 | +$0.05 | 47% 2109-2394 (4503) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | CF Américaavg 26.5¢ | $2.03 | $1.61 | -$0.42 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
Invested
$3,254.27
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$298.09
Record
59%
44933-31331 (76264)
0xheavy888Invested
$487.98
Value
$643.98
PnL
+$72
Record
56%
6940-5557 (12497)
Invested
$158.37
Value
$167.66
PnL
+$9.28
Record
50%
32969-32506 (65475)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$32.43
Value
$33.14
PnL
+$0.71
Record
58%
41030-29693 (70723)
Invested
$10.26
Value
$10.55
PnL
+$0.29
Record
49%
12313-12578 (24891)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
2109-2394 (4503)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.03
Value
$1.61
PnL
-$0.42
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.