CF América leading at halftime?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $431 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$430.75
-$165.7
73¢ → 100¢
+37% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 85¢ | $360.91 | $218.67 | -$142.24 | 50% 32969-32506 (65475) |
 RN1 | Noavg 60¢ | $195 | $167.38 | -$27.63 | 54% 55932-48052 (103984) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $30.55 | $28.61 | -$1.94 | 49% 12313-12578 (24891) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $3.84 | $12.42 | +$8.58 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $6.14 | $3.68 | -$2.46 | 59% 9529-6541 (16070) |
Invested
$360.91
Value
$218.67
PnL
-$142.24
Record
50%
32969-32506 (65475)
RN1Invested
$195
Value
$167.38
PnL
-$27.63
Record
54%
55932-48052 (103984)
Invested
$30.55
Value
$28.61
PnL
-$1.94
Record
49%
12313-12578 (24891)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.84
Value
$12.42
PnL
+$8.58
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
poshposh<$100Invested
$6.14
Value
$3.68
PnL
-$2.46
Record
59%
9529-6541 (16070)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.