CF América vs. Club Tijuana: 1st Half O/U 2.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
$1.2K
$269.95
61.6¢ → 100¢
+62% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 62¢ | $422.2 | $661.53 | +$239.33 | 59% 44933-31331 (76264) |
 RN1 | Underavg 45.3¢ | $202 | $240.72 | +$38.72 | 54% 55932-48052 (103984) |
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540 | Underavg 99¢ | $210.87 | $197.03 | -$13.84 | 81% 2428-552 (2980) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $42.59 | $50 | +$7.41 | 50% 32969-32506 (65475) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 80.2¢ | $21.73 | $24.38 | +$2.65 | 59% 9529-6541 (16070) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 23.7¢ | $22.9 | $18.36 | -$4.54 | 49% 12313-12578 (24891) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $0.98 | $1.2 | +$0.22 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
Invested
$422.2
Value
$661.53
PnL
+$239.33
Record
59%
44933-31331 (76264)
RN1Invested
$202
Value
$240.72
PnL
+$38.72
Record
54%
55932-48052 (103984)
Invested
$210.87
Value
$197.03
PnL
-$13.84
Record
81%
2428-552 (2980)
Invested
$42.59
Value
$50
PnL
+$7.41
Record
50%
32969-32506 (65475)
poshposh<$100Invested
$21.73
Value
$24.38
PnL
+$2.65
Record
59%
9529-6541 (16070)
Invested
$22.9
Value
$18.36
PnL
-$4.54
Record
49%
12313-12578 (24891)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$0.98
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0.22
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.