Exact Score: CF América 3 - 1 Club Tijuana?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 90¢ · $823 held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$823.35
-$24.97
92.7¢ → 90¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 93¢ | $732.84 | $409.76 | -$323.08 | 59% 44933-31331 (76264) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Yesavg 7¢ | $29.4 | $201.6 | +$172.2 | 49% 12313-12578 (24891) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 7¢ | $37.26 | $183.14 | +$145.88 | 54% 55932-48052 (103984) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $26.97 | $16.5 | -$10.47 | 50% 32969-32506 (65475) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $21.85 | $12.35 | -$9.5 | 58% 41030-29693 (70723) |
Invested
$732.84
Value
$409.76
PnL
-$323.08
Record
59%
44933-31331 (76264)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$201.6
PnL
+$172.2
Record
49%
12313-12578 (24891)
RN1CTRInvested
$37.26
Value
$183.14
PnL
+$145.88
Record
54%
55932-48052 (103984)
Invested
$26.97
Value
$16.5
PnL
-$10.47
Record
50%
32969-32506 (65475)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$21.85
Value
$12.35
PnL
-$9.5
Record
58%
41030-29693 (70723)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.