Will CF América vs. Club Tijuana end in a draw?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 57¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 29

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$177.77

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 57.5¢

-19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,656

Combined PnL+$243.66

No7 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares5,172

Combined PnL-$421.42

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 30.4¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$238.63	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 72¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$158.39	49% 12313-12578 (24891)
oieshfn345	Noavg 70.5¢	$1.2K	$983.76	-$200.69	57% 1650-1227 (2877)
RN1	Noavg 69.6¢	$917.33	$856.33	-$61	54% 55932-48052 (103984)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 72.8¢	$173.12	$160.93	-$12.2	52% 13603-12436 (26039)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.8¢	$153.75	$127.72	-$26.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23¢	$19.37	$33.21	+$13.84
poshposh	Noavg 74¢	$111	$111.75	+$0.75	59% 9529-6541 (16070)
BA Bayupati<$100	Noavg 80¢	$72.57	$70.3	-$2.27	51% 202-194 (396)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 73.2¢	$65.85	$67.05	+$1.2	54% 6118-5182 (11300)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$73.7	$35.29	+$2.01	58% 41030-29693 (70723)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$17.6	$19.6	+$2	57% 2083-1561 (3644)
0xheavy888<$100	Noavg 78¢	$15.57	$14.55	-$1.02	56% 6940-5557 (12497)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$8.14	$9.16	+$1.02	53% 15797-13980 (29777)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,028.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$238.63

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,349.05

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$158.39

Record

49%

12313-12578 (24891)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,184.45

Value

$983.76

PnL

-$200.69

Record

57%

1650-1227 (2877)

RN1

Invested

$917.33

Value

$856.33

PnL

-$61

Record

54%

55932-48052 (103984)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$173.12

Value

$160.93

PnL

-$12.2

Record

52%

13603-12436 (26039)

Both legs:

No$153.7572.8¢-$26.03

Yes$19.3723¢+$13.84

poshposh

Invested

$111

Value

$111.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

Bayupati<$100

Invested

$72.57

Value

$70.3

PnL

-$2.27

Record

51%

202-194 (396)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$65.85

Value

$67.05

PnL

+$1.2

Record

54%

6118-5182 (11300)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.7

Value

$35.29

PnL

+$2.01

Record

58%

41030-29693 (70723)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.6

Value

$19.6

PnL

+$2

Record

57%

2083-1561 (3644)

0xheavy888<$100

Invested

$15.57

Value

$14.55

PnL

-$1.02

Record

56%

6940-5557 (12497)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.14

Value

$9.16

PnL

+$1.02

Record

53%

15797-13980 (29777)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.