Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CF América vs. Club Tijuana: Both Teams to Score
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 0.1¢ · $222 held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$222.18
-$86.21
40.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 44.5¢ | $264.23 | $175.23 | -$89 | 59% 44933-31331 (76264) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $25.21 | $33.81 | +$8.6 | 50% 32969-32506 (65475) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $10.32 | $7.08 | -$3.24 | 54% 55932-48052 (103984) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.4¢ | $5.18 | $3.69 | -$1.49 | 49% 12313-12578 (24891) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $3.44 | $2.36 | -$1.08 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
Invested
$264.23
Value
$175.23
PnL
-$89
Record
59%
44933-31331 (76264)
Invested
$25.21
Value
$33.81
PnL
+$8.6
Record
50%
32969-32506 (65475)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$10.32
Value
$7.08
PnL
-$3.24
Record
54%
55932-48052 (103984)
Invested
$5.18
Value
$3.69
PnL
-$1.49
Record
49%
12313-12578 (24891)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.44
Value
$2.36
PnL
-$1.08
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.