Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$4.8K
$26.12
93.8¢ → 96¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
4891h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 95.2¢ | $2.2K | $2.1K | +$17.21 | 56% 18332-14683 (33015) |
SE SeniorLaghetto | Noavg 94.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$41.94 | 69% 406-182 (588) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 86¢ | $549.63 | $495.2 | -$54.42 | 59% 990-695 (1685) |
LI lissartter<$100 | No | $68.96 | $68.96 | +$20.52 | 42% 5345-7358 (12703) |
HI hithitfar<$100 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $60.03 | $60.9 | +$0.87 | 58% 706-507 (1213) |
Invested
$2,211.54
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$17.21
Record
56%
18332-14683 (33015)
Invested
$2,049.58
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$41.94
Record
69%
406-182 (588)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$549.63
Value
$495.2
PnL
-$54.42
Record
59%
990-695 (1685)
Invested
$68.96
Value
$68.96
PnL
+$20.52
Record
42%
5345-7358 (12703)
Invested
$60.03
Value
$60.9
PnL
+$0.87
Record
58%
706-507 (1213)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.