Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$1.0K
-$14.17
89¢ → 88.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 89¢ | $949.75 | $944.42 | -$5.34 | 0% 0-41 (41) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $44.61 | $37.22 | -$7.39 | 5% 7-127 (134) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.6¢ | $25.62 | $24.2 | -$1.42 | — 0-3 (3) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $4.45 | $4.43 | -$0.03 | — 14-4 (18) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.