Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 69¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes69¢No31¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$145.14

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 68.5¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$846.29

Total Shares957

Combined PnL+$125.95

No3 traders

Total Value$214.4

Total Shares633

Combined PnL+$19.19

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MY myxi	Yesavg 69¢	$647.18	$553.34	+$106.79	68% 369-177 (546)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 88.6¢	$265.74	$283.5	+$17.76	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 30.7¢	$184	$203.99	+$20	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 31.3¢	$9.4	$10.2	+$0.05	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 80.5¢	$8.05	$9.45	+$1.4	54% 6304-5335 (11639)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 30.6¢	$1.06	$0.21	-$0.85	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

myxi

Yes

Invested

$647.18

Value

$553.34

PnL

+$106.79

Record

68%

369-177 (546)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$265.74

Value

$283.5

PnL

+$17.76

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$184

Value

$203.99

PnL

+$20

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.05

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$1.4

Record

54%

6304-5335 (11639)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.06

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.85

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.