Will US Amal Tiznit win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$2.0K
$24.3
97.8¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MY myxi | Noavg 98¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$37.01 | 68% 369-177 (546) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95¢ | $101.94 | $107.25 | +$5.31 | 50% 33443-33004 (66447) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $33.22 | $23.73 | -$9.49 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $22.1 | $0.55 | -$21.55 | 50% 25153-24879 (50032) |
BE BetyourselfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $81.99 | $0 | +$13.01 | 64% 2253-1263 (3516) |
Invested
$1,859.04
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$37.01
Record
68%
369-177 (546)
Invested
$101.94
Value
$107.25
PnL
+$5.31
Record
50%
33443-33004 (66447)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$33.22
Value
$23.73
PnL
-$9.49
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
Invested
$22.1
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$21.55
Record
50%
25153-24879 (50032)
Invested
$81.99
Value
$0
PnL
+$13.01
Record
64%
2253-1263 (3516)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.