Will RS Berkane win on 2026-11-01?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$155.92

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 100¢

+33% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,573

Combined PnL+$156.8

No1 trader

Total Value$4.55

Total Shares28

Combined PnL-$0.88

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 75.6¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$151.71	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 54¢	$400.48	$221.46	-$179.02	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
└ No leg	Noavg 54¢	$352.17	$172.83	-$179.35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 73¢	$48.3	$48.63	+$0.33
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 47.6¢	$208.45	$93.22	-$115.23	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64.6¢	$45.2	$64.05	+$18.85
└ No leg	Noavg 47.6¢	$163.25	$29.17	-$134.08
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 74.2¢	$77.9	$84	+$6.1	54% 6435-5416 (11851)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 63.3¢	$5.78	$4.88	-$0.9	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 19.1¢	$5.43	$4.55	-$0.88	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$2.2	$2	-$0.1	52% 7507-6801 (14308)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,102.51

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$151.71

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$400.48

Value

$221.46

PnL

-$179.02

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Both legs:

No$352.1754¢-$179.35

Yes$48.373¢+$0.33

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$208.45

Value

$93.22

PnL

-$115.23

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Yes$45.264.6¢+$18.85

No$163.2547.6¢-$134.08

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.9

Value

$84

PnL

+$6.1

Record

54%

6435-5416 (11851)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.78

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$0.9

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$5.43

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0.88

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.