Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-10-28?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 66¢ · $553 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$553.3
$83.02
53.7¢ → 66¢
+23% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 54.1¢ | $444.4 | $521.89 | +$77.49 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 53.4¢ | $15.91 | $17.86 | +$1.95 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 41.1¢ | $5.42 | $6.32 | +$0.9 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $4.1 | $5.15 | +$1.05 | 47% 2056-2353 (4409) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $61.34 | $2.08 | +$1.62 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
Invested
$444.4
Value
$521.89
PnL
+$77.49
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$15.91
Value
$17.86
PnL
+$1.95
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.42
Value
$6.32
PnL
+$0.9
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$5.15
PnL
+$1.05
Record
47%
2056-2353 (4409)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$61.34
Value
$2.08
PnL
+$1.62
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.