COD Meknès vs. AS FAR: Draw at halftime?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.3K
$431.34
94¢ → 99.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CL claudesportsCTR | Noavg 6¢ | $90.3 | $1.0K | +$948.13 | 35% 349-650 (999) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 94¢ | $538.15 | $177.48 | -$360.67 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105 | Yesavg 94.2¢ | $241.36 | $79.45 | -$161.91 | 95% 23106-1165 (24271) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $1.9 | $8.21 | +$6.31 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $1.05 | $0.54 | -$0.51 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
Invested
$90.3
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$948.13
Record
35%
349-650 (999)
Invested
$538.15
Value
$177.48
PnL
-$360.67
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$241.36
Value
$79.45
PnL
-$161.91
Record
95%
23106-1165 (24271)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$8.21
PnL
+$6.31
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.54
PnL
-$0.51
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.