Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will AS FAR win on 2026-11-01?

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$442.71

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,091

Combined PnL+$260.23

No5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,722

Combined PnL+$182.48

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR	Yesavg 44.6¢	$931.38	$1.2K	+$260.23	63% 1795-1071 (2866)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 28.7¢	$763.13	$728.8	-$34.33	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
└ No leg	Noavg 54¢	$308.74	$483.12	+$174.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.7¢	$454.39	$245.68	-$208.71
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 59.8¢	$473.16	$561.46	+$88.31	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 55¢	$419.45	$521.03	+$101.58	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 53¢	$106	$102	-$4	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 54¢	$94.5	$89.25	-$5.25	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 60¢	$7.04	$8.89	+$1.85	53% 5677-5082 (10759)

spyGoodLuck77CTR

Yes

Invested

$931.38

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$260.23

Record

63%

1795-1071 (2866)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$763.13

Value

$728.8

PnL

-$34.33

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

Both legs:

No$308.7454¢+$174.38

Yes$454.3928.7¢-$208.71

UpTheBlues

Invested

$473.16

Value

$561.46

PnL

+$88.31

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

SnakeBall

Invested

$419.45

Value

$521.03

PnL

+$101.58

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$106

Value

$102

PnL

-$4

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$94.5

Value

$89.25

PnL

-$5.25

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$7.04

Value

$8.89

PnL

+$1.85

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.