AS FAR vs. IR Tanger: O/U 0.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$210.84

Smart Money Entry

80.8¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,991

Combined PnL-$490.47

Under5 traders

Total Value$593.64

Total Shares1,500

Combined PnL+$279.63

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 80.8¢	$1.4K	$879.35	-$513.87	81% 2417-550 (2967)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 15¢	$138.17	$396.48	+$258.31	50% 12142-12350 (24492)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 25.3¢	$148.3	$146.45	-$1.86	50% 24390-24013 (48403)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Overavg 69¢	$111.91	$134.62	+$22.71	82% 2349-529 (2878)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$102.12	$103.1	+$0.98	95% 22900-1152 (24052)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$9.75	$31.85	+$22.1	54% 55758-47850 (103608)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$2.79	$11.39	+$8.6	50% 32806-32358 (65164)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 34.1¢	$15	$7.48	-$7.52	59% 30110-20842 (50952)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 70¢	$1.05	$0.77	-$0.29	53% 3109-2775 (5884)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$1,393.23

Value

$879.35

PnL

-$513.87

Record

81%

2417-550 (2967)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$138.17

Value

$396.48

PnL

+$258.31

Record

50%

12142-12350 (24492)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$148.3

Value

$146.45

PnL

-$1.86

Record

50%

24390-24013 (48403)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Over

Invested

$111.91

Value

$134.62

PnL

+$22.71

Record

82%

2349-529 (2878)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$102.12

Value

$103.1

PnL

+$0.98

Record

95%

22900-1152 (24052)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.75

Value

$31.85

PnL

+$22.1

Record

54%

55758-47850 (103608)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.79

Value

$11.39

PnL

+$8.6

Record

50%

32806-32358 (65164)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$7.52

Record

59%

30110-20842 (50952)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$0.29

Record

53%

3109-2775 (5884)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.