Will IR Tanger win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$2.2K
-$89.92
93.6¢ → 100¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 92.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$58 | 50% 24390-24013 (48403) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.9¢ | $480.62 | $503.74 | +$23.12 | 50% 32806-32358 (65164) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 95.6¢ | $504.49 | $453.65 | -$50.84 | 59% 44657-31054 (75711) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $79 | $74.76 | -$4.24 | 50% 12142-12350 (24492) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $2.7 | $2.7 | -$0 | 53% 3109-2775 (5884) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $0.55 | $0.6 | +$0.05 | 54% 6053-5131 (11184) |
Invested
$1,225.39
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$58
Record
50%
24390-24013 (48403)
Invested
$480.62
Value
$503.74
PnL
+$23.12
Record
50%
32806-32358 (65164)
Invested
$504.49
Value
$453.65
PnL
-$50.84
Record
59%
44657-31054 (75711)
Invested
$79
Value
$74.76
PnL
-$4.24
Record
50%
12142-12350 (24492)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
3109-2775 (5884)
Invested
$0.55
Value
$0.6
PnL
+$0.05
Record
54%
6053-5131 (11184)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.