Will AS FAR win on 2026-10-28?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 28

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$-3.3K

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,455

Combined PnL$-2.1K

No1 trader

Total Value$394.46

Total Shares2,384

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100	Yesavg 49.3¢	$4.1K	$6.4K	+$2.3K	81% 2417-550 (2967)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.3¢	$3.2K	$3.5K	+$335.43
└ No leg	Noavg 14.3¢	$908.3	$2.9K	+$2.0K
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 90.9¢	$5.5K	$3.4K	$-2.1K	50% 24390-24013 (48403)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Noavg 53¢	$1.2K	$781.46	-$467.04	50% 12142-12350 (24492)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 84.9¢	$574.87	$558.93	-$15.94
└ No leg	Noavg 53¢	$673.63	$222.53	-$451.1
RN1CTR	Noavg 51.7¢	$1.6K	$394.46	$-1.2K	54% 55758-47850 (103608)
RO Rocko33<$100	Yesavg 82.3¢	$60.15	$55.52	-$4.64	64% 997-568 (1565)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$63	$49.48	-$3.52	58% 40808-29511 (70319)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 92.2¢	$31.17	$25.59	-$5.58	54% 6053-5131 (11184)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,120.19

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

81%

2417-550 (2967)

Both legs:

Yes$3,211.8949.3¢+$335.43

No$908.314.3¢+$2.0K

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$5,485.92

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

50%

24390-24013 (48403)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Invested

$1,248.5

Value

$781.46

PnL

-$467.04

Record

50%

12142-12350 (24492)

Both legs:

Yes$574.8784.9¢-$15.94

No$673.6353¢-$451.1

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,583.7

Value

$394.46

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

55758-47850 (103608)

Rocko33<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.15

Value

$55.52

PnL

-$4.64

Record

64%

997-568 (1565)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$63

Value

$49.48

PnL

-$3.52

Record

58%

40808-29511 (70319)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.17

Value

$25.59

PnL

-$5.58

Record

54%

6053-5131 (11184)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.