Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by December 31, 2026?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 64¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$1.1K
$1.2K
Research grade
NeutralYes at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA pakukudolphi | Yesavg 37.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.1K | +$1.2K | 47% 100-115 (215) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $62 | $36.5 | -$25.5 | 56% 15523-12137 (27660) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $9.2 | $7.2 | -$2 | 30% 1409-3213 (4622) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $8.8 | $7.2 | -$1.6 | 21% 2286-8721 (11007) |
Invested
$1,744.44
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
47%
100-115 (215)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$62
Value
$36.5
PnL
-$25.5
Record
56%
15523-12137 (27660)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$2
Record
30%
1409-3213 (4622)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$8.8
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$1.6
Record
21%
2286-8721 (11007)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.