Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FK Grobina, while the market favors FC RFS (96%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: FC RFS (-2.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold FK Grobina (50%) · FK Grobina at 4.0¢ · $572 held · ended Nov 1

FC RFS96¢FK Grobina4¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

FK Grobina

Consensus Traders

FK Grobina 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$571.91

Combined PnL

-$32.87

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 4¢

-92% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidFK Grobina at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FK Grobina

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors FC RFS 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC RFS96%

FK Grobina4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FK Grobina2 traders

Total Value$126.43

Total Shares287

Combined PnL-$66.06

FC RFS2 traders

Total Value$96.14

Total Shares209

Combined PnL+$33.19

FK Grobina — 50%FC RFS — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	FC RFSavg 49¢	$49.85	$349.34	+$299.49	50% 25644-25471 (51115)
└ FK Grobina leg	FK Grobinaavg 4.3¢	$18.2	$188.2	+$170
└ FC RFS leg	FC RFSavg 49¢	$141	$161.15	+$129.49
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	FK Grobinaavg 49.7¢	$137.15	$121.46	-$65.38	57% 29224-21607 (50831)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	FC RFSavg 50¢	$51.63	$84.82	+$33.19	55% 1777-1466 (3243)
AR ARocky33<$100	FC RFSavg 46¢	$11.32	$11.32	+$0	76% 4143-1304 (5447)
HRTradingCTR<$100	FK Grobinaavg 50¢	$5.65	$4.97	-$0.68	53% 5597-5025 (10622)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

FC RFS

Invested

$49.85

Value

$349.34

PnL

+$299.49

Record

50%

25644-25471 (51115)

Both legs:

FK Grobina$18.24.3¢+$170

FC RFS$14149¢+$129.49

LeLynxMalynxCTR

FK Grobina

Invested

$137.15

Value

$121.46

PnL

-$65.38

Record

57%

29224-21607 (50831)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

FC RFS

Invested

$51.63

Value

$84.82

PnL

+$33.19

Record

55%

1777-1466 (3243)

ARocky33<$100

FC RFS

Invested

$11.32

Value

$11.32

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

4143-1304 (5447)

HRTradingCTR<$100

FK Grobina

Invested

$5.65

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0.68

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

Research grade

AvoidFK Grobina at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

FK Grobina

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors FC RFS 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FK Grobina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.2%

4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1809.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

1909.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.