Will FC RFS win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 98¢ · $787 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$787.06
$82.52
88¢ → 97.5¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Yesavg 88¢ | $579.88 | $642.49 | +$69.52 | 55% 1777-1466 (3243) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Yesavg 88¢ | $121.41 | $134.52 | +$15.11 | 57% 29224-21607 (50831) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $4.86 | $5.15 | +$0.29 | 74% 1680-593 (2273) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $7.3 | $4.9 | -$2.4 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
Invested
$579.88
Value
$642.49
PnL
+$69.52
Record
55%
1777-1466 (3243)
Invested
$121.41
Value
$134.52
PnL
+$15.11
Record
57%
29224-21607 (50831)
Invested
$4.86
Value
$5.15
PnL
+$0.29
Record
74%
1680-593 (2273)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.3
Value
$4.9
PnL
-$2.4
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.