Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
FK Liepaja vs. SK Super Nova: O/U 6.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 45¢ · $260 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
$260.46
$36.78
39.3¢ → 45.1¢
+15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RE retarbCTR | Overavg 38¢ | $155.6 | $184.67 | +$29.07 | 48% 4253-4544 (8797) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 42.9¢ | $62.58 | $65.79 | +$3.21 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 54.9¢ | $5.49 | $9.99 | +$4.5 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.