Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FK Liepaja win on 2026-11-01?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 25¢ · $284 held · ended Nov 1

Yes25¢No75¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$284.24

Combined PnL

$55.4

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 24.5¢

-63% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$282.23

Total Shares337

Combined PnL+$54.57

No1 trader

Total Value$2.01

Total Shares12

Combined PnL+$0.83

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 67.2¢	$136.14	$168.12	+$31.99	50% 25644-25471 (51115)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$64	$83	+$19.5	58% 42662-31048 (73710)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 59.3¢	$17.53	$18.85	+$1.31	54% 6424-5409 (11833)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$10.49	$12.26	+$1.77	53% 5597-5025 (10622)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 10¢	$1.18	$2.01	+$0.83	58% 10646-7629 (18275)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$136.14

Value

$168.12

PnL

+$31.99

Record

50%

25644-25471 (51115)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64

Value

$83

PnL

+$19.5

Record

58%

42662-31048 (73710)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.53

Value

$18.85

PnL

+$1.31

Record

54%

6424-5409 (11833)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.49

Value

$12.26

PnL

+$1.77

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$1.18

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$0.83

Record

58%

10646-7629 (18275)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.