Will FK Liepaja vs. SK Super Nova end in a draw?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 65¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$2.9K
$16.68
99.7¢ → 65¢
-35% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$1.4 | 98% 13358-214 (13572) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $14.56 | $34.14 | +$19.58 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.3¢ | $32.53 | $23.58 | -$8.95 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $0.35 | $4.99 | +$4.65 | 54% 6424-5410 (11834) |
Invested
$2,805.97
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$1.4
Record
98%
13358-214 (13572)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$14.56
Value
$34.14
PnL
+$19.58
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$32.53
Value
$23.58
PnL
-$8.95
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
Invested
$0.35
Value
$4.99
PnL
+$4.65
Record
54%
6424-5410 (11834)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.