Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will BFC Daugavpils win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 1.0¢ · $309 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$309.03
-$240.01
33¢ → 1¢
-97% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Yesavg 63¢ | $194.43 | $256.01 | +$60.04 | 55% 1777-1466 (3243) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $83.82 | $35.56 | -$43.18 | 57% 29224-21607 (50831) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 69.7¢ | $7.6 | $8.95 | +$1.35 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 33¢ | $266.38 | $8.48 | -$257.9 | 50% 25644-25471 (51115) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 17¢ | $0.34 | $0.02 | -$0.32 | 54% 6424-5409 (11833) |
Invested
$194.43
Value
$256.01
PnL
+$60.04
Record
55%
1777-1466 (3243)
Invested
$83.82
Value
$35.56
PnL
-$43.18
Record
57%
29224-21607 (50831)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.6
Value
$8.95
PnL
+$1.35
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
Invested
$266.38
Value
$8.48
PnL
-$257.9
Record
50%
25644-25471 (51115)
Invested
$0.34
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.32
Record
54%
6424-5409 (11833)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.