Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FK Kauno Zalgiris win on 2026-10-31?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 25¢ · $203 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$203.09
-$15.61
25.8¢ → 24.5¢
-5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 26.2¢ | $167.09 | $153.14 | -$13.95 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $25.92 | $25.92 | -$0 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $10.7 | $10.26 | -$0.44 | 62% 1149-698 (1847) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $7.8 | $7.2 | -$0.6 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 25.7¢ | $6.14 | $5.73 | -$0.41 | 51% 6007-5697 (11704) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $1.05 | $0.84 | -$0.21 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
Invested
$167.09
Value
$153.14
PnL
-$13.95
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Invested
$25.92
Value
$25.92
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
Invested
$10.7
Value
$10.26
PnL
-$0.44
Record
62%
1149-698 (1847)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$7.8
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$0.6
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$6.14
Value
$5.73
PnL
-$0.41
Record
51%
6007-5697 (11704)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$0.21
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.