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Yes
balthazar<$100NoNoNo
Istaroth<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on October 28?
Resolved No. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$33.18
Smart Money Signal
Yes
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares40
Combined PnL-$33.18
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 20%No — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $13.6 | — | -$33.18 | 55% 266-222 (488) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20676-13098 (33774) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 63.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6325-5539 (11864) |
HI HighTempTation<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | — | — | +$0 | 99% 1552-4 (1556) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 59.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 27% 281-769 (1050) |
HE
HellYeahTraderCTR<$100Invested
$13.6
Value
—
PnL
-$33.18
Record
55%
266-222 (488)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20676-13098 (33774)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6325-5539 (11864)
HI
HighTempTation<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
1552-4 (1556)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
281-769 (1050)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf7bec579...da75e6
Slug
lowest-temperature-in-wellington-on-october-28-2026-10c