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IstarothNoYes
balthazar<$100NoNo
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
5
No 50%
Total Value
$220
Combined PnL
$7.8
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$220
Total Shares220
Combined PnL+$9.8
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares20
Combined PnL-$2
No — 60%Yes — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Istaroth | Noavg 95.5¢ | $210.2 | $220 | +$9.8 | 21% 300-1144 (1444) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 56% 372-296 (668) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20981-13343 (34324) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1774-1756 (3530) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 526-2359 (2885) |
IstarothInvested
$210.2
Value
$220
PnL
+$9.8
Record
21%
300-1144 (1444)
HE
HellYeahTraderCTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
56%
372-296 (668)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20981-13343 (34324)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1774-1756 (3530)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
526-2359 (2885)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4cd80371...ef2a17
Slug
lowest-temperature-in-tokyo-on-october-30-2026-13c