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YesNo
Haradwaith<$100Yes
balthazarCTR<$100NoYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on November 15?
Resolved Yes. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 50%
Total Value
$5.04
Combined PnL
$7.05
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$5.04
Total Shares5
Combined PnL+$7.42
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares6
Combined PnL-$0.36
Yes — 60%No — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $5 | +$3.6 | 61% 1202-764 (1966) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Noavg 6¢ | $0.31 | — | -$0.31 | 47% 887-1007 (1894) |
Haradwaith<$100 | Yesavg 27.3¢ | $7.24 | $0.04 | -$2.42 | 29% 308-740 (1048) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 6¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 42% 5212-7125 (12337) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Yesavg 37.5¢ | $3.75 | — | +$6.24 | 25% 1356-4124 (5480) |
VI
vibing123<$100Invested
$1.4
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.6
Record
61%
1202-764 (1966)
0X
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100Invested
$0.31
Value
—
PnL
-$0.31
Record
47%
887-1007 (1894)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$7.24
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$2.42
Record
29%
308-740 (1048)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
42%
5212-7125 (12337)
AH
aHjCz<$100Invested
$3.75
Value
—
PnL
+$6.24
Record
25%
1356-4124 (5480)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xd9d4fc5f...8904ea
Slug
lowest-temperature-in-tokyo-on-november-15-2026-12c