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balthazar<$100No
LornaPredicts<$100NoNo
Lucerys<$100NoNoNoNo
HaradwaithCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 2°C on November 8?
Resolved No. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
9
No 100%
Total Value
$81.56
Combined PnL
$5.7
Smart Money Signal
No
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No7 traders
Total Value$81.56
Total Shares82
Combined PnL+$5.7
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
No — 78%Yes — 22%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $50.98 | $51.56 | +$0.58 | 34% 33217-64988 (98205) |
LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $20 | +$5 | 19% 2981-12794 (15775) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $9.89 | $10 | +$0.11 | 28% 3048-7956 (11004) |
Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 86.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 18006-22281 (40287) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 56% 23834-18418 (42252) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 86.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 35% 1022-1939 (2961) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 48% 11465-12267 (23732) |
HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | — | — | +$0 | 40% 6684-10176 (16860) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 49% 43869-46551 (90420) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$50.98
Value
$51.56
PnL
+$0.58
Record
34%
33217-64988 (98205)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$15
Value
$20
PnL
+$5
Record
19%
2981-12794 (15775)
LU
luciebot<$100Invested
$9.89
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.11
Record
28%
3048-7956 (11004)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
18006-22281 (40287)
NO
northdrawer<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
23834-18418 (42252)
AN
anothercoin<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
1022-1939 (2961)
QU
quietparcel<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
11465-12267 (23732)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
6684-10176 (16860)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
43869-46551 (90420)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x2ff37004...af74cc
Slug
lowest-temperature-in-seoul-on-november-8-2026-2c