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No
LornaPredictsCTR<$100YesYes
Lucerys<$100NoNoNoNo
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 8?
Resolved No. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
8
No 33%
Total Value
$190
Combined PnL
$6.29
Smart Money Signal
No
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No5 traders
Total Value$190
Total Shares190
Combined PnL+$7.6
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares70
Combined PnL-$1.31
No — 63%Yes — 37%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 123987456 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $182.76 | $190 | +$7.6 | 30% 2943-6806 (9749) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $0.72 | — | -$0.72 | 14% 9504-60834 (70338) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.4¢ | $0.62 | — | -$0.6 | 45% 32048-39176 (71224) |
Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18536-24186 (42722) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 47% 47428-53893 (101321) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 40% 3999-6085 (10084) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 49% 24093-24636 (48729) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 13% 703-4662 (5365) |
12
123987456Invested
$182.76
Value
$190
PnL
+$7.6
Record
30%
2943-6806 (9749)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.72
Value
—
PnL
-$0.72
Record
14%
9504-60834 (70338)
AH
aHjCzCTR<$100Invested
$0.62
Value
—
PnL
-$0.6
Record
45%
32048-39176 (71224)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18536-24186 (42722)
QW
qwen300.fund<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
47428-53893 (101321)
HA
haveagoodday<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
3999-6085 (10084)
MI
mildwindow27<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
24093-24636 (48729)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
13%
703-4662 (5365)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xfcbeba9e...99a1f5
Slug
lowest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-8-2026-48-49f