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IstarothCTR<$100YesYesYesYesYes
Lucerys<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 43°F or below on November 8?
Resolved No. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$10.82
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 6 top traders (83%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares129
Combined PnL-$10.82
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 83%No — 17%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $1.31 | — | -$3.16 | 13% 703-4662 (5365) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.73 | — | -$2.73 | 50% 21529-21407 (42936) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$2.73 | 49% 24093-24636 (48729) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.05 | — | -$2.2 | 47% 47428-53893 (101321) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.01 | — | -$0.01 | 45% 32048-39176 (71224) |
Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18536-24186 (42722) |
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$1.31
Value
—
PnL
-$3.16
Record
13%
703-4662 (5365)
QU
quietparcelCTR<$100Invested
$2.73
Value
—
PnL
-$2.73
Record
50%
21529-21407 (42936)
MI
mildwindow27CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$2.73
Record
49%
24093-24636 (48729)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$2.2
Record
47%
47428-53893 (101321)
AH
aHjCzCTR<$100Invested
$0.01
Value
—
PnL
-$0.01
Record
45%
32048-39176 (71224)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18536-24186 (42722)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x870c0851...8ca0a4
Slug
lowest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-8-2026-43forbelow