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NoNo
balthazarCTR<$100NoNoNo
Lucerys<$100YesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on November 13?
Resolved Yes. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
No 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$17.18
Smart Money Signal
No
6 of 7 top traders (86%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares145
Combined PnL-$23.89
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$6.71
No — 86%Yes — 14%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.4¢ | $60.27 | — | -$60.27 | 41% 37-54 (91) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $4 | — | -$4 | 53% 6922-6099 (13021) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.5¢ | $1.4 | — | +$24.96 | 44% 5045-6487 (11532) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $2.85 | — | +$1.69 | 37% 1518-2567 (4085) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $1.48 | — | +$5.23 | 27% 673-1791 (2464) |
Lucerys<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.73 | — | +$6.71 | 36% 3731-6727 (10458) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 6¢ | $0.6 | — | +$8.49 | 29% 3160-7828 (10988) |
BI
BilberryCTR<$100Invested
$60.27
Value
—
PnL
-$60.27
Record
41%
37-54 (91)
CI
cigarettesCTR<$100Invested
$4
Value
—
PnL
-$4
Record
53%
6922-6099 (13021)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.4
Value
—
PnL
+$24.96
Record
44%
5045-6487 (11532)
AN
anothercoinCTR<$100Invested
$2.85
Value
—
PnL
+$1.69
Record
37%
1518-2567 (4085)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$1.48
Value
—
PnL
+$5.23
Record
27%
673-1791 (2464)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$0.73
Value
—
PnL
+$6.71
Record
36%
3731-6727 (10458)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$0.6
Value
—
PnL
+$8.49
Record
29%
3160-7828 (10988)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xdeb2e500...68a50a
Slug
lowest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-13-2026-40-41f