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YesNoYesNo
Lucerys<$100NoNo
balthazar<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on November 13?
Resolved No. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 67%
Total Value
$20
Combined PnL
-$31.64
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares116
Combined PnL-$38.04
No5 traders
Total Value$20
Total Shares20
Combined PnL+$6.4
Yes — 29%No — 71%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.4¢ | $37.37 | — | -$37.37 | 41% 37-54 (91) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $15.8 | $20 | +$4.2 | 53% 6922-6099 (13021) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.67 | — | -$0.67 | 27% 673-1791 (2464) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $3.1 | $0 | +$1.44 | 37% 1518-2567 (4085) |
Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $5.04 | — | +$2.23 | 36% 3731-6727 (10458) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $9.7 | — | -$0.61 | 29% 3160-7828 (10988) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $27.23 | — | -$0.87 | 44% 5045-6487 (11532) |
BI
BilberryCTR<$100Invested
$37.37
Value
—
PnL
-$37.37
Record
41%
37-54 (91)
CI
cigarettes<$100Invested
$15.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$4.2
Record
53%
6922-6099 (13021)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$0.67
Value
—
PnL
-$0.67
Record
27%
673-1791 (2464)
AN
anothercoin<$100Invested
$3.1
Value
$0
PnL
+$1.44
Record
37%
1518-2567 (4085)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.04
Value
—
PnL
+$2.23
Record
36%
3731-6727 (10458)
QW
qwen300.fund<$100Invested
$9.7
Value
—
PnL
-$0.61
Record
29%
3160-7828 (10988)
balthazar<$100Invested
$27.23
Value
—
PnL
-$0.87
Record
44%
5045-6487 (11532)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xa67be575...48873e
Slug
lowest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-13-2026-38-39f