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balthazarCTR<$100Yes
LucerysCTR<$100YesNoYesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on November 13?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$5.21
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares34
Combined PnL-$3.67
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL-$1.54
Yes — 60%No — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.64 | — | -$2.64 | 44% 5045-6487 (11532) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.73 | — | -$0.59 | 36% 3731-6727 (10458) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $7.37 | $0 | -$0.66 | 27% 673-1791 (2464) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | — | -$0.44 | 37% 1518-2567 (4085) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $9.98 | — | -$0.89 | 29% 3160-7828 (10988) |
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.64
Value
—
PnL
-$2.64
Record
44%
5045-6487 (11532)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.73
Value
—
PnL
-$0.59
Record
36%
3731-6727 (10458)
LU
luciebot<$100Invested
$7.37
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.66
Record
27%
673-1791 (2464)
AN
anothercoinCTR<$100Invested
$0.45
Value
—
PnL
-$0.44
Record
37%
1518-2567 (4085)
QW
qwen300.fund<$100Invested
$9.98
Value
—
PnL
-$0.89
Record
29%
3160-7828 (10988)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x2e60d198...74a4db
Slug
lowest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-13-2026-36-37f