Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (94%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on November 7?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 5.6¢ · $505 held · ended Nov 7

Yes94¢No6¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$504.87

Combined PnL

-$270.05

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 5.6¢

-93% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 94%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$352.86

Total Shares622

Combined PnL+$211.31

No8 traders

Total Value$152

Total Shares1,348

Combined PnL-$481.36

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 47.6¢	$243.3	$283.61	+$261.56	85% 106-18 (124)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$22.45	$65.03	+$42.58	50% 9315-9358 (18673)
yen4u	Yesavg 36.2¢	$112.01	$63.88	-$48.13	85% 1005-179 (1184)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR	Noavg 89¢	$6.24	$63.5	-$203.17	43% 5538-7237 (12775)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR	Noavg 70.2¢	$188.11	$12.99	-$175.12	30% 2853-6533 (9386)
BI Bilberry<$100	Yesavg 28.8¢	$7.49	$5.37	-$2.12	53% 5069-4422 (9491)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 79.2¢	$64.77	$3.97	-$60.81	46% 6625-7759 (14384)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$55.57	$3.89	-$51.69	46% 6880-8136 (15016)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 74.3¢	$29.72	$1.94	-$27.78	50% 65490-65806 (131296)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 55.2¢	$2.76	$0.46	-$2.3	57% 24685-18276 (42961)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 66.2¢	$3.31	$0.24	-$3.07	22% 3328-11821 (15149)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$243.3

Value

$283.61

PnL

+$261.56

Record

85%

106-18 (124)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$22.45

Value

$65.03

PnL

+$42.58

Record

50%

9315-9358 (18673)

yen4u

Yes

Invested

$112.01

Value

$63.88

PnL

-$48.13

Record

85%

1005-179 (1184)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR

Invested

$6.24

Value

$63.5

PnL

-$203.17

Record

43%

5538-7237 (12775)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR

Invested

$188.11

Value

$12.99

PnL

-$175.12

Record

30%

2853-6533 (9386)

Bilberry<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.49

Value

$5.37

PnL

-$2.12

Record

53%

5069-4422 (9491)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$64.77

Value

$3.97

PnL

-$60.81

Record

46%

6625-7759 (14384)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$55.57

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$51.69

Record

46%

6880-8136 (15016)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$29.72

Value

$1.94

PnL

-$27.78

Record

50%

65490-65806 (131296)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$2.3

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$3.31

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$3.07

Record

22%

3328-11821 (15149)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 94%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.9%

5.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

1447.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.