Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 8°C on October 28?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 38¢ · $75 held · ends Oct 28

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$75.14

Combined PnL

$4.42

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$43.55

Total Shares106

Combined PnL+$4.42

No2 traders

Total Value$31.59

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$0

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.6¢	$23.83	$26.66	+$2.83	55% 217-181 (398)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 58¢	$20.2	$20	-$0.2	32% 273-593 (866)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 58¢	$11.39	$11.59	+$0.2	61% 20522-12983 (33505)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$21.71	$8.69	+$0.19	53% 6235-5472 (11707)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$6.8	$8.2	+$1.4	50% 1623-1615 (3238)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.83

Value

$26.66

PnL

+$2.83

Record

55%

217-181 (398)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.2

Record

32%

273-593 (866)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$11.39

Value

$11.59

PnL

+$0.2

Record

61%

20522-12983 (33505)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.71

Value

$8.69

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

6235-5472 (11707)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.8

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$1.4

Record

50%

1623-1615 (3238)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.