Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on November 6?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $229 held · ends Nov 6
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Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$229.33
$15.99
71.3¢ → 99¢
+39% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 70.8¢ | $127.46 | $178.21 | +$16.65 | 57% 735-562 (1297) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 73.4¢ | $63.25 | $49.56 | +$1.15 | 13% 547-3612 (4159) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.7¢ | $3.37 | $1.56 | -$1.81 | 53% 4111-3681 (7792) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.